Handicapping the
Winter Series
[Tue 9th Apr]
Introduction
As requested at the committee meeting dated 4th
March 2013, to follow is the general procedure used to calculate the
handicapped start times for the Winter Series.
Formulating the “projected clock time”
At the very beginning of each Winter Series every
member who is entered to race is given a “start time”. This is formed by estimating the entrant’s
potential time over our course and its set distance of 4 km. As this is not a standard distance, a large
amount of mathematics is needed to obtain a time.
As the beginning of the series normally starts just
after quite a few “shorter” races such as our own Summer Cup and Autumn Relays as
well as other races, there is normally some evidence of current form to go off
for each and every runner. If a member
wishes to run and hasn’t actually done any races of this short nature, then any
other races such as a 10 km can give an indication of ability. If a member who wishes to run and hasn’t done
any races whatsoever then the only way to tell ability is from our training
nights. This basically means who do they
look comfortable against in training.
With Alison’s beginners this is particular important as in all
likelihood they have not raced before.
I can use some “yardsticks” for this. A) Are they faster than Alison who they are
running with?. B) Are they faster than Andrew Grieves who they can also run
with?. This usually gives enough of a
guide so as not to be totally wrong by a long way. You tend to find that anyone with the main
training groups has actually done some race before. But if not (e.g. new member Claire Kirkwood)
you can use the same principle.
The same method can be used during the series
itself, such as with Claire above.
Once you have some idea of approximate potential
race times of any member who wishes to run, you can then set the “projected
clock time”. You must give enough leeway
at this stage to allow the slowest runner to A) Actually run slower than you
estimate and B) Not to start on zero as it’s quite off putting and C) Not to be
too far from the zero setting as then everyone has to wait for their own start
times.
It is really important not to move this clock time
if at all possible especially during the series. As people get used to it very quickly.
Races used for information
In theory any race can be used, however I only tend
to go to and beyond 10 km when I’m absolutely stuck. All race examples are “road” ones that are
used. The most common races that I use
for information are as follows:
A) If the start of the series then the Summer Cup is
an excellent guide.
B) During the series then the series races
themselves.
C) Any relays along the way, such as our own Autumn
relays (start of the series), Good Fridays, Signals etc. All are on the road.
D) Park Runs
E) NSP GP races (shorter ones)
F) Any other local known 5 km s
Fortunately our senior juniors do tend to do some of
the Park Runs and in some of the relay events have their own races.
Abstracting the information
The times obtained from these races have to be then
recalculated to “fit” into our own Winter Series course. I normally obtain a few GPS findings of these
races to obtain a good average actual distance.
You then have a time and a set distance.
Next are the conditions on the day of a race. In our recent bad winter it has been
difficult to run to full potential on surfaces, not through loss of form but
physically because of the weather, each race gets its own simple weather report
to aid myself.
The course itself can cause a bit more
calculating. Fortunately I have run
these all myself so know what the differences are;
Working out the “actual time”
Once you have abstracted the information etc you can
commence with the maths of working out the potential actual time for our winter
series course and distance. The main
time consuming part is the requirement of every single calculation needs
converting from the normal time format of minutes and seconds to that of
minutes and points of a minute, this is to undertake the maths to convert say a
3.54 km relay to a 4 km winter series race, then you need to turn it all back
again to minutes and seconds for our ultimate usage. This is one of the easier examples of calculations
required as the difference in distance involved probably wouldn’t alter anyone’s
pace per km too much.
Other races are more complex. I have spent many an hour working out how to
convert the NSP GP shorter race to a representative time for our own winter
series race. Distance and actual course
content being different but similar.
I created a formulae using historical (last few
years of data) comparing our more consistent runners times from the NSP races
(shorter ones) and our winter series (new course). Once you are confident that
you have enough raw data you can prepare to create the formulae. Once you have the formulae (this can be
rechecked as much as you like) its maths time again. It isn’t ideal to use only the NSP GP as the
way to obtain an actual time for our winter series, as for an example I personally
was “better” on shorter races than slightly longer, but if put together with
other race information it certainly gives an excellent guide.
Working out the “start times”
This is simply a deduction using “clock time minus
start time”.
Problems
There are a few.
One of the main ones that seems to give everyone concern is the use of
15 second starting breaks and not an exact starting time. This is used to give the starting officials
enough time to read out the starter’s names, one per second cannot be read out in
time!
Also in terms of assisting the runners it’s always
better for pacing etc to run in a group wherever possible.
Another is that of runners not running to the best
of their ability in a race, this can happen for numerous reasons; quite often a
runner will actually say to me that they have not run well and give their
reason, then request that their “start time” is not adjusted next time. Sometimes a runner can have a totally off
day. This is why I look at the last
races in my data to see if there is a constant theme. Is this the likely pace now for the runner or
was this a “one off”?. Hence when you see in our start times that some are
moved “up” and then someone isn’t, this is normally the reason.
Overall
Not just our winter series races are used to
calculate a start time.
Not just the “flat” times are used; these
occasionally have to be adjusted to allow for conditions.
If a person wins or indeed comes last they do not
automatically have their handicaps adjusted, this applies to all positions
within the race.
I define what recent form is (usually about three
months) and how many races actually give enough data, I make that judgement
against each runner such as those who only do the odd winter series race or
indeed has only done a few. The more
they do the more accurate everything gets.
And finally………
This is all why we are radically different to the
NSP GP. To be fair to them they have in
excess of 200 runners to handicap where as we have less than half that
amount. So in my opinion and to be
honest facts do bear this out we actually have a far more accurate and
therefore fairer system than that of the NSP GP.
The downside is that it can take many hours of
preparation and presentation with this for each and every race.
Thanks
Iain